The SPY And QQQ End The Week Teetering At Key Levels (Technically Speaking For The Week Of 9/14-9/18)

My Friday column contains two sections. The first uses the analytical format developed by Arthur Burns and Geoffrey Moore that organizes economic data into long-leading, leading, and coincidental buckets. The second looks at the chart of ETFs that track major averages.

Long-leading indicators

Burns and Moore use mid-rated bond yields to determine the level of financial stress. Since the time of their writing, several Fed banks have developed indexes which more broadly measure the same thing:

All three indexes — which spiked during the Spring lockdowns — have returned to more normal levels.

Third-quarter earnings estimates are still weak. From Factset (emphasis added):

The estimated (year-over-year) revenue decline for Q3 2020 is -3.9%, which is below the 5-year average revenue growth rate of 3.4%. Five sectors are expected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by Health Care sector. Six sectors are expected to report a year-over-year decline in

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