Yesterday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a crude oil inventory draw of 4.4 million barrels (MMbbl) for the week to September 11. It was a “bullish surprise” as analysts had expected an inventory build of a bit over 2 MMbbl for the period.
At 496 MMbbl, commercial crude oil stocks are still above the 5-year average (+59.3 MMbbl) as well as above last year’s level (+78.9 MMbbl). Although the “surplus” is shrinking, it remains rather larger (by historical standards) and the WTI price seems elevated when set against the current level of inventories (see the chart below).
U.S. Commercial Oil Stocks + Changes and Deviations
U.S. Commercial Oil Stock Deviations vs. WTI price
Source: EIA, Bluegold Trader estimates and calculations
In the week ending September 11, production was up 9% w-o-w to 10.9 bbl/d. Total supply, however, was up only 3.1% w-o-w, as imports were down